Orange Sky
w.239 | Carta VC Data, Emerging Manger Analysis, AI at Microsoft, AI & Macro Econ, RCT Lessons, Network School
Dear Friends,
I’ve got a lot of links this week on a wide range of topics.
Yesterday, my dad asked how I find such a wide selection of music for Song of the Week. Several people have asked some variation of this question over the last five years and ‘if I would run out.’ Given that the playlist “Possible DS” has 8 hours and 15 minutes playtime remaining, I wouldn’t worry. Each week is more of a selection challenge than a sourcing one.
But, to answer the sourcing question, there are three sources of great new songs: First, friends and readers. People recommend me their favorite songs all the time. I love this and always listen. Second, Spotify Discover Weekly. Each week, they serve up 20-30 new songs personalized for my tastes. Many great ones from obscure artists. Last week’s song ‘Everyone Loves the Sunshine” was sourced this way. Third, and my favorite, is when I hear an amazing song out in the wild and connected to a new experience. Encoding the song with the experience and then putting it on a weekly newsletter significantly improves my memory through the association. Orange Sky, this week’s selection, was a ‘found in the wild’ song.
Today's Contents:
Good Reads: Sensible Investing
Future of Learning Stuff
Song of the Week: Orange Sky
Good Reads: Sensible Investing
Carta VC Fund Performance Q1 2024. This report has been the talk of the venture ecosystem this week. It’s probably the best performance data in the industry and helps cut through the hype and noise and provides a clear (and in this case sober) view of what is reality. Below are some of the Total Value to Paid In ranges.
Other charts in the report show the slowing distributions of cash back to LPs and the ‘Series A’ crunch as previously ~30% of startups got to a Series A in 2 years and in recent vintages only ~15% did. This is one reason for founders who are choosing longevity for their companies to closely manage cash and prioritize capital efficiency.
One of the consequences of this trend is that fundraising is down significantly, particularly for new funds. That means that hiring into venture and being a junior partner has become particularly tough as there are less in fees and more competition for promotion to partner. Also, carry from many of the funds in the 2019-2022 vintages may never materialize as entry points are too high.
Business Insider recently published this article based on talking to 11 junior VCs: Venture capital's new reality check: 'A ton of people looking to get out everywhere'.
Round up of articles on why emerging managers and young funds are good bets:
Superior Return/Risk Opportunities in New and Emerging Boutique VC Funds - Academic article.
ACCESS AND OUTLIERS: The Appeal of Small Venture Funds - Substack Article.
Establishing a Case for Emerging Managers from PitchBook.
The Best Venture Firm You’ve Never Heard Of. This is an older article about Hummingbird Ventures, but always good to review.
Other interesting AI articles
How Microsoft spread its bets beyond OpenAI (In the FT, linked to a PDF)
The company’s vast spending on AI continues — accounting for much of its $56bn in annual capex.
OpenAI vs Mustafa and Inflection.
The Simple Macroeconomics of AI - Academic Paper by Daron Acemoglu.
Using existing estimates on exposure to AI and productivity improvements at the task level, these macroeconomic effects appear nontrivial but modest—no more than a 0.71% increase in total factor productivity over 10 years. The paper then argues that even these estimates could be exaggerated, because early evidence is from easy-to-learn tasks, whereas some of the future effects will come from hard-to-learn tasks, where there are many context-dependent factors affecting decision-making and no objective outcome measures from which to learn successful performance.
Future of Learning Stuff
Our Randomized Controlled Trial Journey by Matt Pasternack. Super helpful article from an experienced EdTech founder on his experience to prove product impact using research.
The Network School - Interesting new education experiment announced by Balaji on Twitter and happening near Singapore this fall.
The Future Of Cities Exploration from The Pathless Path Blog. Great summary of all the different experiments currently in the works.
Song of the Week: Orange Sky
Video on YouTube.
“Orange Sky,” Alexi Murdoch.
I recently attended a three day meditation retreat in the Catskills. Not a silent retreat but one where the facilitators sing songs and play music into the evening and then you reflect on your insights in a group circle the following morning.
At the end of the third night, the last song one of the facilitators sang was Orange Sky (acoustic on the guitar). I was convinced it must have been a Nick Drake song, because it sounds so much like Pink Moon. It was perfect for the mood of the evening.
YouTube comments show that this song is played often at funerals. Here’s how one reviewer describes it:
The reiteration of dreaming beneath an orange sky, surrounded by family, evokes a feeling of nostalgia and belonging. It’s not just the sky that’s in transition, but the self; it’s a moment of reckoning and acceptance of life’s journey, acknowledging the long road trodden and that which lies ahead.
This song is a true gem. My friend and I listened to it on repeat as we re-entered society after the weekend.
Yes, I had a dream
I stood beneath an orange sky
With my brother and my sister standing bySelfie of the Week
I’ve been home in Minneapolis this weekend for the local celebration of my sister’s recent marriage and my grandfather’s 92nd birthday. Saturday, we spent several hours at the Minnesota Landscape Arboretum, one of my parent’s favorite places.
Thanks for reading, friends. Please always be in touch.
As always,
Katelyn